Last week (February 24th-28th week), the price of gold rose for the fourth consecutive week. Although the price of gold in the first two trading days of this week has risen sharply, the risk aversion has eased since then, and the profit-taking has suppressed the price of gold. The high position fell back. From the overall fundamental point of view, gold prices are still boosted by physical purchases in emerging countries such as China and India. In addition, tensions in Ukraine also support gold prices. The recent weak economic data in the United States also has certain support for gold prices. The overall bullish status of gold prices is not destroyed.
Important news will be released this week (the week of March 3-9), including PMI data for major economies, as well as US industrial output, personal income, consumer confidence index, factory orders, trade accounts, etc. Pay attention to it. Among them, the most important thing is the data released by the US on non-agricultural employment and unemployment rate next Friday.
Key words on Monday: the opening performance of gold, the final value of PMI in various countries, and a series of important data in the United States.
Monday event: Brussels, Belgium, European Central Bank (ECB) President Draghi made an opening speech for the European Parliament's Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee (ECON) quarterly hearing. Monday's gold opening performance is undoubtedly a major event of the day. The economic data released by the countries in the day can be described as "one after another." First, investors should pay attention to the final value of the PMI announced by the countries in the euro zone. It is expected that the data will once again give the European Central Bank a more guidance on interest rate cuts. Next is a series of economic data from the United States. These data will once again test the economic situation of the United States in the cold, affecting the trend of the US dollar index. If the data is good, it will suppress gold. If the data is poor, it will boost gold.
Key words on Tuesday: Eurozone PPI, US ISM New York Fed Corporate Activity Index, US Consumer Confidence Index.
Tuesday event: Jon Cunliffe, Deputy Governor of the Bank of England, London, 18:30
23:00 US Washington, US Senate Finance Committee held a hearing on the appointment of Stanley Fischer as the vice chairman and director of the Federal Reserve Board
There is less economic data released on Tuesday. Among them, investors who need to pay more attention to the impact of gold, the first need to pay attention to the PPI of the euro zone, if the data is good, boost the gold. In addition, the two US data released in the evening will also have a certain impact on the trend of gold.
Key words on Wednesday: Eurozone GDP, final PMI for each country, ADP employment in the US, ISM non-manufacturing PMI.
Wednesday Event: 05:15 New York Economic and Education Committee Summit. Richmond Fed President Leek participated in the "Fed's latest developments" discussion. 09:30 Seattle, San Francisco, Fed President Williams expressed his views on the economic outlook at an event at Seattle University.
The euro zone's GDP on Wednesday is also worthy of investors' attention, which also gives more news that affects the ECB's interest rate cuts. In addition, investors are also concerned about the final value of PMI in the euro zone countries, if the data is good, it may boost the price of gold. The US ADP data released in the evening is also very important. Investors can find the prospect of US non-agricultural data, which has always been the vane of US non-agricultural data.
Thursday Keywords: Fed Beige Book, ECB Rate Resolution, Bank of England Interest Rate Resolution.
Thursday event: 20:45 European Central Bank Management Committee meeting in Frankfurt, Germany, the interest rate decision will be announced after the meeting. A press conference was held at 21:30 Beijing time.
21:15 New York, United States Federal Reserve Board (Fed/FED) Vice Chairman and New York Fed President Du Deli attended a seminar hosted by the Wall Street Journal (blog, Weibo) (blog, Weibo) and Dow Jones.
Starting Thursday, this week's wave will start. First, the Fed's Beige Book investors will be able to get more policy leads from the Fed. In addition, the ECB's interest rate decision will push this week's market to a climax.
The European Central Bank announced the interest rate decision. Earlier, everyone had positive expectations for the ECB's relaxation policy. But the Eurozone inflation data released this Friday has caused the ECB's interest rate cuts to cool. Analysts believe that the European Central Bank (ECB) may be forced to print large amounts of money this year to guard against deflationary risks and help the rather fragile economy recover. Most analysts expect the ECB to hold a current 0.25% refinancing rate unchanged next Thursday (March 6). But most people think that the ECB's interest rate options have been exhausted, and more aggressive policy measures are needed, such as the US, UK and Japan central banks to buy sovereign bonds.
Friday Keywords: US non-agricultural employment, US unemployment rate.
On Friday at 02:00, the London Fed President of the United Kingdom, Prosso, gave a speech on "economic and monetary policy prospects."
07:00 Washington, DC, Federal Reserve Chairman of the United States, Lockhart, gave a speech on the economic outlook at Georgetown University.
Saturday and Sunday Keywords: China Economic Data
China will have CPI and import and export trade data released last weekend, which may have a weak impact on the opening trend of gold prices on Monday.
The top priority this week is the US data on non-agricultural employment and unemployment. If the data is good, it will suppress gold, and if the data is not as expected, it will boost gold. The non-agricultural data released by the US last month was far less than expected. Many analysts attributed the weakness of non-agricultural data to the weather factor, but only the weather factor seems to be unable to explain the US retail, utilities, government departments in January this year. There has been a significant reduction in employment in education and medical care. Whether non-agricultural will continue the trend of previous data this month, whether it can alleviate people's concerns about the US economic recovery, whether it can affect the Fed's policy of reducing the scale of debt purchase, everything will be announced next Friday.
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